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Market Cycle Radar (US Market)

53/100
Mid Cycle
Avg. of 11 indicators

Where Are We in the Cycle?

The radar combines slow-moving credit, valuation, and economic indicators into a cycle position between early/healthy and late/overextended. Each value is ranked against its own distribution — not against fixed thresholds. The basis is the available history of each series, at most 10 years; the start year is shown on every card. Unlike the fear/greed barometer, the radar does not measure daily sentiment but the position in the cycle.

As of: March 31, 2026 to September 18, 2026

Credit-to-GDP Gap ⓘ Early / Relaxed
-11,3 %-Pkt higher than 17% of all values since 2016
As of: March 31, 2026 BIS
Credit-to-GDP Ratio ⓘ Early / Relaxed
139,7 % BIP higher than 6% of all values since 2021
As of: March 31, 2026 BIS
Debt Service Ratio ⓘ Early / Relaxed
13,8 % higher than 6% of all values since 2021
As of: March 31, 2026 BIS
Insider Buy Share ⓘ Late Cycle
0,10 higher than 40% of all values since 2016
As of: August 31, 2026 SEC Form 4 (in-house)
Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y) ⓘ Mid Cycle
0,25 % higher than 40% of all values since 2016
As of: September 18, 2026 US-Treasury / FRED
High-Yield Risk Premium ⓘ Overextended / Late
2,68 % higher than 8% of all values since 2023
As of: September 18, 2026 ICE BofA / FRED
Unemployment Rate ⓘ Mid Cycle
4,1 % higher than 55% of all values since 2016
As of: August 1, 2026 BLS / FRED
IPO Volume ⓘ Mid Cycle
40 higher than 48% of all values since 2020
As of: August 31, 2026 SEC EDGAR (in-house)
Announced Insider Sales ⓘ Overextended / Late
4.256 higher than 95% of all values since 2023
As of: August 31, 2026 SEC EDGAR (in-house)
Private Financings ⓘ Mid Cycle
3.117 higher than 56% of all values since 2020
As of: August 31, 2026 SEC EDGAR (in-house)
Gold Price ⓘ Overextended / Late
4.411 $/oz higher than 96% of all values since 2016
As of: August 31, 2026 World Bank (Pink Sheet / CMO)
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