What's the market's mood right now?
The barometer combines established sentiment indicators for the US market into an overall picture between Fear (panic, sell-off) and Greed (euphoria, risk appetite). Each value is ranked against its own distribution over the last 10 years — not against fixed thresholds.
As of: September 11, 2026 to September 21, 2026
What the Combination Means
Sentiment leans toward risk appetite — the market is in a constructive mood. The picture is clearly split. Equity and credit markets show noticeably more risk appetite than the rate/macro backdrop would justify — such divergences carry setback risk if the macro camp turns out to be right.
Low volatility expectations: the market is relaxed and sees little acute need for hedging.
The curve sits in the middle of its historical range — no clear signal in either direction.
Risk premiums on weaker corporate bonds are extremely tight — investors demand little compensation for default risk. High risk appetite, often a late-cycle trait.
Loose financial conditions: cheap financing supports risk assets.
Indicators at a Glance
| Indicator | What It Measures | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility (VIX) | The VIX measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. Low values indicate calm and risk appetite, high values indicate nervousness and hedging pressure — Wall Street's "fear gauge". | CBOE / FRED |
| Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y) | Spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries. A steep (positive) curve signals confidence in growth, an inverted (negative) curve is regarded as a classic recession warning. | US-Treasury / FRED |
| Risk Premium (High Yield) | Yield premium investors demand for weaker-rated US corporate bonds. Tight spreads indicate risk appetite, wide spreads indicate stress and a flight to safety. | ICE BofA / FRED |
| Financial Conditions (NFCI) | The National Financial Conditions Index combines money-market, bond, and equity risk measures. Negative values indicate loose financing conditions, positive values indicate tight ones. | Chicago Fed / FRED |
| Options Positioning (Put/Call) | Ratio of open put to call options on US stocks (open interest). Low values show a call overweight and risk appetite, high values a put overweight — i.e. hedging and fear positioning. The history grows via daily snapshots, so the gauge sharpens over time. | OCC |
Reading guide: the needle on the left (red) stands for fear/sell-off, on the right (green) for greed/risk appetite. The scale is the distribution of the indicator over the last 10 years in each case — "higher than X% of the last 10 years" places the current value within it.